Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf64a…6706
crypto · 290 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$140 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$142
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses154 / 134
Open positions2
Markets (closed)288 / 290
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$28
14 days−$30
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 30¢ 22¢ $190 $142 −$48 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$55
world 34% +$43
politics 12% −$100
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -2.1%
≤30d 288 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -18.5%
≤90d 288 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -18.5%
all 288 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 53% -18.5%
10% -23.4% 47% -26.3%
15% -30.8% 38% -33.4%
20% -37.6% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.08 · official $142.59 (match) · 459 history records