Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf649…e594 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+11%) realized +$12 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$13
other 27% +$45
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.6% +38.9% 50% 50% +4.3%
≤30d 10 +53.6% +38.9% 50% 50% +4.3%
≤90d 10 +53.6% +38.9% 50% 50% +4.3%
all 10 +53.6% +38.9% 50% 50% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.9% 50% +4.3%
10% +25.6% 50% -5.6%
15% +13.5% 50% -14.8%
20% +2.4% 40% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 60¢ $75 $99 +$24 (+32%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 27¢ 32¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +360%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$36 +51%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$24 +159%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$25 +303%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 32¢ $10 1m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 34¢ $10 2m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $21 47m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $77 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $40 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $15 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $8 30h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $26 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $40 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.48 · official $111.81 · 25 history records