Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf648…8d02 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-7%) realized +$18 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$106
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$68
other 39% −$64
sports 5% −$37
economics 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.6% -17.3% 0% 0% -17.7%
≤30d 22 -2.8% -12.1% 32% 32% -22.3%
≤90d 23 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% -24.4%
all 23 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 30% -24.4%
10% -23.2% 30% -31.6%
15% -30.6% 30% -38.2%
20% -37.4% 26% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage31d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 10 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$50 +99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 06 $59 −$4 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $32 −$25 -76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $16 +$36 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$6 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$11 +252%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 20 $24 −$19 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $103 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $83 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $48 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.63 (match) · 126 history records