Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf646…b77b sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$2
politics 35% −$2
other 16% +$2
crypto 5% $0
world 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 3 -16.8% -24.8% 67% 0% -8.7%
all 44 -5.9% -14.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage229d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 $0 -53%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 11 $76 $0 -0%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Feb 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 30 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $79 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $80 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $165 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $2 $0 -17%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $82 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -40%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 11 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $79 4d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $76 110d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $76 136d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $76 138d
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage BUY Sentinels 100¢ $79 146d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $78 150d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 151d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 152d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $79 153d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $79 154d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $74 155d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 155d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 156d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 157d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 157d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 158d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 158d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 158d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 158d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 159d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $76 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.38 · official $78.38 (match) · 146 history records