Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf645…b8c2 crypto 1963 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,498 (-59%) realized −$1,498 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%666W / 1351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,718
7 days−$1,649
14 days−$1,580
30 days−$1,583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$16
sports 1% +$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 520 -51.5% -56.1% 21% 20% -87.4%
≤30d 1038 -21.6% -29.1% 35% 34% -65.8%
≤90d 2017 -17.1% -25.0% 33% 32% -49.4%
all 2017 -17.1% -25.0% 33% 32% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 32% -49.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 31% -54.2%
15% -38.8% 30% -58.6%
20% -44.8% 29% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses666 / 1351
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2017 / 1963
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2017 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - September 21, 6AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 12AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 8AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 4AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 8PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 21, 11PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 1PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 29, 11AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records