trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +3.3% | -6.5% | 45% | 27% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 56% | 25% | -8.2% |
| all | 16 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 56% | 25% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 25% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 0% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $48 | $48 | −$0 (-0%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $42 | $42 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | Jun 26 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 26 | $112 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 18 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $51 | +$6 | +11% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 18 | $61 | −$3 | -5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $18 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 22 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | May 12 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | May 12 | $4 | $0 | +4% |