Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf644…06ae crypto 1710 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-3%) realized −$379 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%1241W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$609
7 days−$575
14 days−$583
30 days−$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$160
other 1% +$1
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 63% -18.0%
≤30d 987 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 63% -16.5%
≤90d 1748 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 62% -13.4%
all 1748 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 62% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 62% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 24% -21.6%
15% -28.9% 7% -29.2%
20% -35.8% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$379
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1241 / 507
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1748 / 1710
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 90¢ 82¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Jun 16 $141 −$282 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1752%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.52 · official $75.37 · 3500 history records