Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf644…6f44 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$6
other 24% −$22
finance 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 8% -8.7%
all 36 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -10.7%
10% -16.6% 8% -19.2%
15% -24.7% 6% -27.0%
20% -32.1% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage251d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $85 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $79 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $14 +$4 +31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jan 31 $24 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 3h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $19 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records