Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf641…2503 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+7%) realized +$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$35
14 days+$18
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 5% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.5% +1.8% 64% 64% +3.4%
≤30d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 59% -3.4%
≤90d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 59% -3.4%
all 22 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 59% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 59% -3.4%
10% -16.7% 41% -12.7%
15% -24.8% 36% -21.1%
20% -32.1% 27% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$5 -42%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$17 +69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$22 +144%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$20 +164%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $46 +$21 +45%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 28h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 73¢ $13 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $8 15d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $5 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.74 · official $57.39 · 45 history records