Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf640…32cf other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$10
other 14% +$1
politics 12% −$1
tech 5% −$1
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 0% -12.0%
all 46 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -10.6%
10% -16.8% 2% -19.1%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.9%
20% -32.2% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage447d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $71 −$3 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $46 −$7 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -50%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 30 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 23 $3 +$3 +129%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 08 $11 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 4m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 9h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $37 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $37 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $20 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $7 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $40 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $16 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $46 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $45 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $45 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $50 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $50 27d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No $0 356d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No $0 356d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No $0 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records