Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F6 0xf63d…6b49 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+9%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-17.2%	-25.0%	41%	36%	+1.4%
≤30d	22	-17.2%	-25.0%	41%	36%	+1.4%
≤90d	22	-17.2%	-25.0%	41%	36%	+1.4%
all	22	-17.2%	-25.0%	41%	36%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	36%	+1.4%
10%	-32.2%	27%	-8.3%
15%	-38.8%	23%	-17.2%
20%	-44.8%	14%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -28% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 26

History coverage6d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 17	$5	$0	+3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$8	+$1	+17%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$12	+$6	+46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$4	+$2	+50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$7	+$21	+291%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$6	$0	-8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$3	$0	+12%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+57%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$1	+$3	+250%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$9	19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$25	2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$8	4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$12	11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$10	11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	92¢	$5	12h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$4	14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$3	25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$6	25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$3	25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	31¢	$4	2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	3d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$1	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1	3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.73 · official $34.73 (match) · 44 history records