Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf63b…7b76 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$137 (+24%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$61
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +76.1% +59.3% 100% 100% +59.3%
≤30d 17 +41.5% +28.0% 76% 71% +30.3%
≤90d 35 +19.7% +8.3% 63% 60% +18.1%
all 35 +19.7% +8.3% 63% 60% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 60% +18.1%
10% -2.1% 57% +6.8%
15% -11.5% 57% -3.5%
20% -20.2% 51% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $56 +$43 +76%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$18 +128%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $16 +$15 +93%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $24 +$18 +74%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri May 30 $1 $0 -39%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $11 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 28 $21 +$24 +114%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff May 28 $40 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $67 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 27 $28 +$26 +92%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $11 +$7 +62%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 +$6 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $45 +$26 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $31 +$20 +64%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $8 +$10 +118%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs METANOIA WOLVES - Map 2 Winner May 19 $11 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series May 18 $3 +$8 +262%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 3 Winner May 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner May 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $19 +$8 +40%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 10 $13 −$4 -29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 10 $8 +$6 +76%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage May 07 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $10 −$5 -53%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs ESC Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou May 03 $15 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $56 5h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $33 12d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 43¢ $14 12d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL Alliance Guardians 100¢ $31 17d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Alliance Guardians 51¢ $16 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 38¢ $5 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 57¢ $24 20d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL ENCE 39¢ $1 20d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY ENCE 61¢ $1 20d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play SELL Sharks 100¢ $17 21d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play BUY Sharks 63¢ $11 21d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff BUY ex-RUBY 55¢ $2 22d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff BUY ex-RUBY 55¢ $38 22d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY magic 46¢ $21 22d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX 35¢ $5 22d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $69 22d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $67 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $53 23d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 51¢ $28 23d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $18 23d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $12 23d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $6 23d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $11 23d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $71 23d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $45 23d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $8 24d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $12 24d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series SELL Bushido Wildcats 50¢ $11 24d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Bushido Wildcats 43¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records