Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf63a…d769 other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,614 (-43%) realized −$2,520 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%18W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days+$107
14 days+$165
30 days−$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$521
other 25% −$949
politics 14% −$225
world 12% −$696
sports 5% −$62
economics 4% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +68.2% +52.1% 27% 27% +17.8%
≤30d 51 -3.6% -12.8% 20% 20% -66.0%
≤90d 68 -23.2% -30.5% 15% 15% -66.5%
all 168 -23.8% -31.0% 11% 10% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 10% -60.8%
10% -37.6% 10% -64.6%
15% -43.6% 9% -68.0%
20% -49.2% 8% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$28 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$2,520
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 150
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)168 / 180
History coverage150d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $159 $152 −$7 (-5%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $119 $95 −$25 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+5%)
Obama arrested before 2027? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $56 $20 −$36 (-65%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-41%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-57%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$36 +358%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Jun 16 $123 −$94 -77%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 +$35 +507%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $14 −$8 -58%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$23 +269%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 +$54 +232%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $9 +$131 +1503%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $14 +$33 +240%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$36 +497%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $66 +$15 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $49 +$20 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $31 +$22 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $137 −$137 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $87 −$77 -89%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 01 $60 −$57 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $424 −$424 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $265 −$263 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 25 $6 −$4 -68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 25 $40 −$29 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 67¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 15h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 24h
Obama arrested before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.51 · official $416.73 (match) · 846 history records