Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf639…4a74 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$421 (+9%) realized +$785 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$678
7 days+$876
14 days+$876
30 days+$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$887
other 20% −$72
crypto 8% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 42% 42% +12.4%
≤30d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 42% 42% +12.4%
≤90d 41 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% +8.8%
all 41 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 39% +8.8%
10% -16.1% 37% -1.7%
15% -24.2% 37% -11.2%
20% -31.7% 34% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$53 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$785
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage39d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Qatar leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +106%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 +$78 +51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$279 +273%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$124 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $655 +$715 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $701 −$10 -1%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $15 −$3 -16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$10 -10%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$233 +115%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$108 +106%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$66 +259%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$10 -41%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $26 +$70 +276%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$74 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 07 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $5 +$12 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 07 $52 +$95 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 07 $10 +$12 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 27m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $123 28m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 53m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $230 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 57¢ $101 6h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 18h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 18h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 26¢ $102 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,371 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $76 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $75 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $452 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $692 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $701 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.78 · official $413.82 (match) · 79 history records