Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf635…e876 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34,471 (-20%) realized −$34,562 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 45L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,195per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days−$300
14 days−$300
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,373
crypto 12% −$21,212
other 8% −$11,915
world 0% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 77 +3.3% -6.6% 42% 42% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 42% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 39% -34.9%
15% -23.7% 34% -41.2%
20% -31.1% 29% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,563) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,898 vs −$2,122 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$1,491
Realized−$34,562
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage371d
Avg bet$2,195
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,400 $1,491 +$91 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $6,282 −$6,282 -100%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $2,500 +$1,284 +51%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 18 $100 +$96 +96%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 14 $169 −$169 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Dec 14 $392 −$392 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brito vs. Thomson (Featherweight, Prelims) Dec 14 $300 +$128 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $1,500 +$5,022 +335%
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $2,563 −$2,563 -100%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Dec 07 $500 +$563 +113%
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) Dec 06 $271 −$271 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $2,510 −$2,510 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $3,014 −$3,014 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 22 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $7,492 +$2,632 +35%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $1,394 −$1,394 -100%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4,997 −$4,997 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 30 $10,323 −$10,323 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 26 $2,454 −$860 -35%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 26 $2,226 +$3,957 +178%
Wood vs. Delgado Oct 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? Oct 13 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Oct 13 $20,873 −$20,872 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 05 $4,000 +$1,128 +28%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 05 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
Emmett vs. Zalal Oct 05 $537 −$42 -8%
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva Sep 15 $3,060 +$6,467 +211%
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Bryczek Sep 07 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling Sep 07 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Will Walker win by decision? Sep 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Sep 07 $181 −$181 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 07 $1,521 +$1,936 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by KO/TKO/DQ? Aug 23 $149 +$343 +230%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ? Aug 19 $592 −$592 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by decision? Aug 17 $247 +$1,353 +548%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Aug 17 $10,641 −$10,641 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $17,329 +$7,379 +43%
UFC 319: Idiris vs. Morales Aug 17 $560 −$560 -100%
UFC 319: Barboza vs. Klose Aug 17 $925 −$925 -100%
UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk Aug 17 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
UFC 319: Hooper vs. Hernandez Aug 17 $697 +$2,073 +297%
UFC 319: Battle vs. Ruziboev Aug 16 $416 +$90 +22%
UFC 319: Green vs. Ferreira Aug 14 $492 −$87 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. Osbourne Aug 12 $639 −$639 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Aug 12 $2,571 −$2,571 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGhee Aug 12 $418 −$418 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault Aug 12 $933 −$933 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. Matsumoto Aug 10 $2,000 +$896 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. Rodriguez Aug 10 $900 +$1,910 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 68¢ $3,784 153d
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Silva 100¢ $3,784 153d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 69¢ $2,497 154d
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Silva 66¢ $2,500 154d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 195d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 195d
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 58¢ $392 195d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 51¢ $100 195d
UFC Fight Night: Brito vs. Thomson (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Brito 100¢ $428 195d
UFC Fight Night: Brito vs. Thomson (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Brito 70¢ $300 195d
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Sharaf 32¢ $100 196d
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Yan 23¢ $500 202d
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Yan 23¢ $1,000 202d
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Pantoja 68¢ $1,295 202d
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) SELL Ferreira 100¢ $1,063 202d
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Pantoja 67¢ $1,268 202d
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Ferreira 47¢ $500 203d
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) BUY Aslan 34¢ $271 203d
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Muhammad 29¢ $2,510 217d
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 16¢ $1,514 217d
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Almakhan 46¢ $4,600 217d
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 15¢ $1,500 218d
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Brady 60¢ $1,394 223d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $7,492 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,491.13 · official $1,423.35 · 278 history records