Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf633…d57e other 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-16%) realized −$108 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%98W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$67
14 days−$74
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$65
sports 39% −$29
world 3% −$21
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 38% -41.1%
≤30d 137 -17.8% -25.6% 31% 31% -31.4%
≤90d 244 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 35% -26.2%
all 268 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 36% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -25.0%
10% -30.3% 34% -32.1%
15% -37.0% 31% -38.7%
20% -43.2% 26% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses98 / 170
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)268 / 269
History coverage115d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +224%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$9 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 38m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 39m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 41m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $0 42m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 45h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $1.06 (match) · 497 history records