Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf632…f153 crypto 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$315 (+5%) realized +$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%111W / 123L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$192
politics 1% −$2
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.7% 46% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 45% -18.5%
all 234 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 45% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -5.2%
10% -21.6% 42% -14.3%
15% -29.2% 39% -22.6%
20% -36.1% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses111 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage172d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $33 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $38 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $72 −$35 -48%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $70 −$5 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $81 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $55 +$44 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$19 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $17 −$15 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 21 $2 +$4 +152%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 20? May 21 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 20 $24 +$22 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $13 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 06 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 06 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8PM ET May 06 $72 −$16 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 05 $14 +$18 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET May 05 $37 −$23 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET May 05 $91 −$59 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET May 05 $63 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7AM ET May 05 $39 +$24 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $60 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $16 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $11 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records