Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf62f…859a sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$516 (+21%) realized +$518 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%19W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$22
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$507
other 15% −$99
finance 6% −$131
world 3% −$66
crypto 2% +$6
politics 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -77.6% -79.7% 12% 12% -72.6%
≤30d 48 +46.7% +32.7% 31% 29% +70.2%
≤90d 83 +9.9% -0.6% 23% 22% +0.2%
all 83 +9.9% -0.6% 23% 22% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 22% +0.2%
10% -10.1% 22% -9.4%
15% -18.8% 22% -18.1%
20% -26.8% 22% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$21 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$518
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses19 / 64
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions15
Markets (closed)83 / 105
History coverage57d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $17 $35 +$18 (+100%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$11 +365%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +213%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +601%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $31 +$63 +206%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$39 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $32 +$363 +1140%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $228 +$414 +181%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $33 +$62 +188%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $290 −$267 -92%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 52¢ $5 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in BUY 22¢ $3 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2 BUY 4¢ $3 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.02 · official $265.02 (match) · 281 history records