Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf62d…04bc other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+7%) realized +$81 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$67
sports 16% +$20
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 44% +1.0%
≤30d 25 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 44% +1.0%
≤90d 25 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 44% +1.0%
all 25 -21.8% -29.2% 52% 44% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 44% +1.0%
10% -36.0% 28% -8.6%
15% -42.2% 20% -17.5%
20% -47.9% 8% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 30¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-49%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -46%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $76 +$34 +45%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 −$12 -54%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 +$20 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $66 +$41 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $23 −$16 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $67 +$8 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $97 +$14 +15%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 +$7 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 30m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 54m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 56m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.94 · official $25.94 (match) · 90 history records