Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf62a…8457 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$148 (+10%) realized +$153 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$27
other 30% +$51
world 3% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -1.1%
≤30d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -1.1%
all 30 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 43% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 43% -1.1%
10% -3.1% 40% -10.6%
15% -12.5% 37% -19.2%
20% -21.1% 30% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$153
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$1 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$54 +118%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 −$39 -76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$47 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$36 -75%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $66 +$25 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$31 +77%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$49 +99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$4 +8%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$21 -52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $59 −$23 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$22 -49%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $55 −$35 -63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $39 −$15 -40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$2 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$41 -81%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $57 +$2 +3%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$71 +317%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 +$43 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$14 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 −$32 -39%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $44 +$20 +45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$22 +219%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 35m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $19 35m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 31¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $13 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $32 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $52 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $94 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $3 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $4 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $5 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $48 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $47 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 91¢ $91 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $70 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 65¢ $66 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $40 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $99 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $50 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $50 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $0 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $33 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 20¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $35 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.83 · official $105.83 (match) · 81 history records