Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf627…ccaf sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$275 (-10%) realized −$275 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%35W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$0
14 days−$15
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$42
sports 32% −$31
other 28% −$221
world 4% −$1
economics 2% +$24
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.3% -16.1% 57% 52% -9.5%
≤30d 57 -15.4% -23.5% 51% 42% -18.3%
≤90d 57 -15.4% -23.5% 51% 42% -18.3%
all 65 -12.3% -20.7% 54% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 42% -19.2%
10% -28.3% 34% -26.9%
15% -35.2% 20% -34.0%
20% -41.6% 8% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage148d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $20 +$6 +30%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Lingxi Zhao Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
ITF Maanshan: Koki Matsuda vs Artem Alekseychuk Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Little Rock: Daniel Milavsky vs Tung-Lin Wu May 26 $82 −$81 -99%
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta May 26 $110 +$15 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $101 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 25 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 25 $35 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $61 +$28 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $41 +$5 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 69¢ $5 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 84¢ $10 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 79¢ $10 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone SELL Francesco Forti 100¢ $26 6d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau SELL Tristan Boyer 100¢ $13 6d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan BUY Tereza Martincova 55¢ $10 6d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau BUY Tristan Boyer 76¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Francesco Forti 76¢ $20 6d
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan SELL Harmony Tan 76¢ $10 6d
ITF Maanshan: Koki Matsuda vs Artem Alekseychuk BUY Koki Matsuda 88¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.40 · official $43.40 (match) · 156 history records