trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$4 | +24% |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | Jun 14 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | Jun 14 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 13 | $7 | +$1 | +13% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 11 | $14 | +$9 | +64% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? | Jun 09 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? | Jun 09 | $7 | −$5 | -74% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? | Jun 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? | Jun 08 | $14 | +$5 | +32% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? | Jun 07 | $7 | +$10 | +137% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | +$1 | +26% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | +$2 | +30% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Jun 05 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -14.8% | -22.9% | 67% | 44% | -16.3% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 71% | 57% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 71% | 57% | -6.2% |
| all | 14 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 71% | 57% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.4% | 57% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -14.5% | 43% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -22.7% | 14% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -30.3% | 14% | -30.9% |