Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf621…544e sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$717 (+23%) realized +$718 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 51L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$702
14 days+$702
30 days+$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$347
other 42% +$514
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$79
politics 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.3% +10.7% 56% 56% +69.1%
≤30d 16 +22.3% +10.7% 56% 56% +69.1%
≤90d 16 +22.3% +10.7% 56% 56% +69.1%
all 80 +9.5% -0.9% 36% 35% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 35% +22.9%
10% -10.4% 34% +11.1%
15% -19.1% 34% +0.4%
20% -27.0% 30% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$17 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$718
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 90
History coverage245d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 34¢ $35 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$89 +90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $224 +$389 +173%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $72 +$110 +152%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Bills vs. Steelers Nov 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Texans vs. Colts Nov 30 $15 +$21 +140%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Nov 30 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Nov 30 $21 −$21 -100%
LSU vs. Oklahoma Nov 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? Nov 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? Nov 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 28 $60 +$92 +153%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 28 $95 −$70 -74%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Nov 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5 Nov 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Nov 27 $20 +$16 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors Nov 27 $20 +$18 +86%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $13 −$1 -7%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 27 $38 −$30 -79%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $51 +$24 +48%
Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 26 $29 −$8 -27%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 26 $73 −$35 -48%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5 Nov 25 $36 −$3 -8%
Panthers vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5 Nov 25 $67 +$45 +67%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 25 $12 −$9 -78%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 24 $146 +$209 +143%
Heat vs. 76ers Nov 23 $30 +$30 +100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $30 −$2 -7%
Heat vs. Bulls Nov 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 21 $28 +$71 +256%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 26m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 26¢ $31 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $31 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $51 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $99 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 15¢ $77 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $51 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $24 3d
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 3d
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 3d
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals BUY Yes $5 3d
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals BUY Yes $18 4d
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $24 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 25¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.95 · official $83.05 · 273 history records