Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf620…47df other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$54 (+11%) realized +$53 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1
sports 34% +$79
crypto 6% −$29
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +36.3% +23.3% 31% 29% -9.8%
≤30d 45 +35.9% +23.0% 36% 33% +0.0%
≤90d 46 +33.0% +20.3% 35% 33% -0.3%
all 47 +32.3% +19.7% 36% 32% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 32% -0.3%
10% +8.3% 28% -9.9%
15% -2.2% 28% -18.6%
20% -11.8% 26% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage312d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+376%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +116%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +124%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$37 +230%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +568%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +134%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1845%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $12 +$7 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 +$55 +510%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +44%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$33 +338%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$25 +250%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kagiso Rabada win the 2026 IPL purple cap? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $67 +$40 +60%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $58 +$9 +16%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 05 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 43m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 42¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $13 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 39h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 39h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 97¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.74 · official $35.67 (match) · 120 history records