Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf61f…1cf3
other · 36 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$271 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$282 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$114
Realized−$282
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
Avg bet$129
Trades / day559.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 10 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$282
14 days−$282
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 52¢ 50¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 83¢ 73¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$28 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $218 −$22 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $444 −$45 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $130 −$28 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$11 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $111 −$25 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $161 −$20 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $324 −$37 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $122 −$10 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $78 −$27 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $170 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $241 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $86 −$26 -31%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $114 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 12% -21.2%
≤30d 26 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 12% -21.2%
≤90d 26 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 12% -21.2%
all 26 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 12% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover559.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 12% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 0% -28.8%
15% -35.5% 0% -35.7%
20% -41.8% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.32 · official $114.32 (match) · 3273 history records