Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf61e…c059 crypto 467 markets active 8h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%208W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$169
14 days−$241
30 days−$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$542
sports 3% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -29.2% -36.0% 32% 30% -21.7%
≤30d 104 -25.8% -32.9% 34% 31% -30.8%
≤90d 467 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 41% -11.8%
all 467 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 41% -11.8%
10% -23.7% 37% -20.2%
15% -31.1% 30% -27.9%
20% -37.9% 27% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses208 / 259
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)467 / 467
History coverage56d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 467 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$23 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$19 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$12 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$15 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$17 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$87 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$73 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$84 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$61 +139%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$5 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $27 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1254 history records