Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf61d…58cc sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+8%) realized +$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$422
7 days+$160
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$353
other 20% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.1% -56.6% 33% 33% +2.3%
≤30d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 31% 31% -3.3%
≤90d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 31% 31% -3.3%
all 16 -24.0% -31.2% 31% 31% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 31% -3.3%
10% -37.8% 31% -12.5%
15% -43.8% 25% -21.0%
20% -49.3% 19% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$52 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 17 $964 +$422 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $209 −$206 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $207 +$158 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $121 −$120 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $108 −$8 -7%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $39 +$11 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $57 +$93 +165%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $48 +$32 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL RED Canids Academy 99¢ $1,232 1h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL RED Canids Academy 100¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL RED Canids Academy 100¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 64¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 64¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 67¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 70¢ $133 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 70¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 70¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 70¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 70¢ $109 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 68¢ $675 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $89 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $57 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 100¢ $365 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $94 9d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 60¢ $121 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $113 9d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 9d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 9d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 9d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $100 9d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $49 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 58¢ $44 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 49¢ $50 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 100¢ $150 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 58¢ $44 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 100¢ $80 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 59¢ $48 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records