Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf614…beb0 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$631 (+44%) realized +$631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$791
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+85.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +104.6% +85.1% 67% 67% +40.9%
≤30d 3 +104.6% +85.1% 67% 67% +40.9%
≤90d 3 +104.6% +85.1% 67% 67% +40.9%
all 3 +104.6% +85.1% 67% 67% +40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.1% 67% +40.9%
10% +67.4% 33% +27.4%
15% +51.2% 33% +15.1%
20% +36.4% 33% +3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$423 vs −$54 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.54 per $1 lost it wins $15.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$185 +18%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 +$660 +322%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$54 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,194 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 61¢ $866 8h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 9¢ $151 8h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records