Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf610…741c crypto 1369 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,056 (+10%) realized +$1,005 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%624W / 721L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day142.4pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days−$82
14 days+$309
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$100
crypto 24% +$612
other 15% −$96
weather 3% −$122
world 1% +$55
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 568 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 40% -10.8%
≤30d 1345 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 36% -13.3%
≤90d 1345 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 36% -13.3%
all 1345 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 36% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 30% -21.6%
15% -33.1% 25% -29.2%
20% -39.7% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$1,005
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses624 / 721
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions68
Markets (closed)1345 / 1369
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day142.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 1345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 24¢ 97¢ $10 $40 +$30 (+302%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 40¢ 99¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 80¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 41¢ 96¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+131%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 49¢ 97¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+97%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 84¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 65¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 79¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 0¢ 70¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? No 70¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+43%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 90¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $5 $10 +$6 (+127%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win? No 89¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 0¢ 93¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $1 $0 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $4 +$1 +35%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $10 +$16 +157%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +11%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $1 +$4 +471%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +11%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 28 $4 +$1 +32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +25%
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $73 +$44 +60%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $156 +$318 +204%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$12 +122%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $30 +$12 +41%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $50 +$11 +22%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$24 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $2 +$3 +122%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $10 +$9 +85%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $10 +$12 +121%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +128%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $4 +$1 +33%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +88%
Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua FC? Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1 53m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ $7 54m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 6¢ $0 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $7 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 73¢ $0 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.83 · official $426.84 (match) · 3500 history records