Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf610…9143 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$11
other 25% +$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 0% -8.6%
all 37 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $127 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $114 +$3 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $106 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $164 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $14 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 26 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 02 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 22 $16 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $47 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $63 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $64 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $63 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $57 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $57 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records