Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf60d…5fbf crypto 105 markets active 10h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+11%) realized +$40 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%44W / 53L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$23
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$16
other 19% −$3
sports 17% +$9
politics 14% +$36
world 10% −$6
finance 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 33% -2.3%
≤30d 97 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 33% -1.0%
≤90d 97 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 33% -1.0%
all 97 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 33% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 33% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 25% -10.5%
15% -34.1% 19% -19.1%
20% -40.5% 13% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses44 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)97 / 105
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $15 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$12 +158%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $22 +$38 +176%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 24h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 25h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 1¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.61 · official $21.61 (match) · 306 history records