Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf60b…c18e other 851 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,039 (-3%) realized −$2,043 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%377W / 473L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$2,297
sports 15% +$136
world 1% −$123
finance 0% −$70
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +18.5% +7.2% 35% 35% +20.4%
≤30d 23 +18.5% +7.2% 35% 35% +20.4%
≤90d 420 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 42% -21.6%
all 850 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 44% -13.1%
10% -16.1% 43% -21.4%
15% -24.2% 42% -29.0%
20% -31.7% 40% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$60 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$2,043
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses377 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)850 / 851
History coverage181d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 850 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? No 58¢ 62¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 +$20 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$13 +171%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 +$17 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$49 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$152 +488%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 −$42 -85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$28 +233%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 +$46 +525%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$11 -84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$56 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$10 -88%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,778 −$1,713 -96%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $25 +$54 +216%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $771 −$661 -86%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $377 −$337 -89%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $18 −$17 -94%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $12 −$9 -72%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-03-22? May 21 $22 +$47 +216%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $5 −$3 -64%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $155 −$152 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $141 −$122 -87%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $57 −$50 -88%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $18 −$16 -87%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $11 +$17 +156%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $11 −$8 -78%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $6 +$9 +150%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $4 −$2 -62%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva May 19 $4 −$3 -61%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3 +$7 +197%
Will FC Petrolul Ploieşti win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $43 +$65 +150%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $38 −$26 -69%
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 −$4 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 58¢ $46 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $21 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $22 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 37¢ $8 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $35 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 2¢ $1 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $13 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 4¢ $1 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $10 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 16¢ $24 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $27 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $3 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $4 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 9¢ $8 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $49 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $3 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $11 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 11¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $12 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.07 · official $49.08 (match) · 2789 history records