Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf60b…7d2e crypto 223 markets active 3d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+4%) realized +$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%153W / 70L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$178
14 days+$174
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$181
other 0% +$1
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -5.4% -14.4% 70% 46% -6.7%
≤30d 223 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 223 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 47% -6.7%
all 223 -5.2% -14.3% 69% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 47% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 26% -15.6%
15% -30.0% 16% -23.8%
20% -36.8% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses153 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$20 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $111 −$94 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records