Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf60a…5747 crypto 1007 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$648 (+4%) realized +$651 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate59%657W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$244
sports 21% +$181
other 2% −$10
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -97.4% -97.6% 2% 2% -87.8%
≤30d 112 -97.4% -97.7% 2% 2% -87.9%
≤90d 117 -90.8% -91.7% 5% 3% -85.9%
all 1110 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 17% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 17% -20.5%
10% -29.1% 17% -28.1%
15% -35.9% 17% -35.1%
20% -42.2% 17% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$651
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses657 / 453
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1110 / 1007
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 448 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Hornets Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 4? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $59 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 25h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $22 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 74d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $10 89d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 89d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 89d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? SELL Yes 87¢ $11 89d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.92 · official $116.93 (match) · 3500 history records