Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf60a…d7a2 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+19%) realized +$88 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$12
other 41% +$51
crypto 2% +$4
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 39% +6.4%
≤30d 23 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 39% +6.4%
≤90d 23 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 39% +6.4%
all 23 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 39% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% +6.4%
10% -24.7% 39% -3.7%
15% -32.0% 35% -13.0%
20% -38.6% 26% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 70¢ 32¢ $29 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $20 −$7 -36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $54 +$1 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $55 +$27 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 +$8 +149%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +72%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$18 +367%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$5 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 37¢ $13 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 76¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 55¢ $20 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 65¢ $55 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 66¢ $55 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 61¢ $54 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez BUY Pedro Martinez 23¢ $5 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 29¢ $5 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 62¢ $7 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 71¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.67 · official $13.67 (match) · 39 history records