Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf609…e68b
other · 779 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$762 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$334 · open −$167
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,285
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses265 / 251
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions460
Markets (closed)516 / 779
History coverage15d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day191.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 460 History 516 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$121
14 days+$257
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $271 $537 +$266 (+98%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $156 $165 +$9 (+6%)
Will Germany win the World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $151 $154 +$3 (+2%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+3%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $130 $126 −$3 (-2%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $118 $117 −$2 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $110 $113 +$3 (+3%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $95 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? No 96¢ 94¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? No 89¢ 95¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $59 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 49¢ 40¢ $63 $52 −$11 (-17%)
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 69¢ 80¢ $44 $52 +$7 (+16%)
Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 95¢ 99¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? No 17¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$2 -35%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $14 +$2 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +106%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 −$4 -9%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo Jun 13 $72 −$5 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $155 +$5 +3%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Sweden reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$12 +45%
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $75 −$4 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $27 +$17 +61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $19 +$5 +26%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $16 −$8 -48%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 12 $137 −$17 -12%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 −$3 -23%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$385
politics 32% −$266
sports 17% +$4
tech 4% −$16
finance 1% +$27
crypto 1% +$49
economics 1% +$3
world 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 27m
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 8¢ $2 27m
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 33m
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 33m
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 8¢ $0 33m
Will Belgium win the World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 36m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 36m
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 39m
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 8¢ $2 39m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $17 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks 24¢ $3 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) SELL Spurs 75¢ $9 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks 25¢ $1 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) SELL Spurs 75¢ $4 1h
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $24 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 2h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 19¢ $6 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $23 2h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 19¢ $2 2h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $28 3h
Will Belgium win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $63 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 30% -11.1%
≤30d 516 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 37% -7.0%
≤90d 516 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 37% -7.0%
all 516 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 37% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover191.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 37% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 28% -15.9%
15% -21.9% 19% -24.0%
20% -29.5% 14% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,284.69 · official $4,217.16 · 3500 history records