Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf608…6752 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized +$16 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$15
economics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 25% -7.5%
≤30d 4 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 25% -7.5%
≤90d 4 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 25% -7.5%
all 4 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 25% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 25% -7.5%
10% -34.5% 0% -16.4%
15% -40.9% 0% -24.4%
20% -46.7% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage99d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $143 $139 −$4 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $107 $105 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $110 +$16 +15%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.65 · official $413.65 (match) · 18 history records