Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf607…4102 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-7%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$36
sports 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 14 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 14 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -13.2%
all 14 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 50% -13.2%
10% -35.3% 36% -21.5%
15% -41.5% 14% -29.1%
20% -47.3% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$35 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$23 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $91 −$70 -77%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$60 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $198 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -71%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$52 -35%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 +$44 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $106 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $97 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $100 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $99 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records