Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf605…b676 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%51W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$18
14 days−$17
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.1% -18.6% 40% 20% -18.4%
≤30d 58 +2.2% -7.5% 66% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 92 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 34% -12.7%
all 92 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 34% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 34% -12.7%
10% -19.1% 7% -21.1%
15% -26.9% 2% -28.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses51 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage50d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$16 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$5 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $12 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $12 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $12 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $12 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $17 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $16 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $17 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $16 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.29 · official $11.29 (match) · 326 history records