Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf604…eb89 crypto 891 markets active 7h ago coverage 198d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,224 (+0%) realized +$1,224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%782W / 108L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 198d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,922
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 2% -8.9%
≤30d 481 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 674 +1.8% -7.9% 94% 3% -8.9%
all 890 -3.7% -12.9% 88% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 1% -17.7%
15% -28.8% 1% -25.7%
20% -35.8% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$891) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$2,404
Realized+$1,224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses782 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)890 / 891
History coverage198d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,404 $2,404 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,388 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,333 +$45 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,376 −$38 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,377 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,943 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,341 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,406 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2,406 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $87 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2,301 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $281 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $728 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,319 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $98 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $967 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $50 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $56 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $4 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $98 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $3 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,404.40 · official $2,404.40 (match) · 3239 history records