Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

F6 0xf604…e3f4 crypto 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+4%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown99%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day31.9pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-21.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-13.4%	-21.7%	53%	47%	-9.4%
≤30d	19	-13.4%	-21.7%	53%	47%	-9.4%
≤90d	19	-13.4%	-21.7%	53%	47%	-9.4%
all	19	-13.4%	-21.7%	53%	47%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.9 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-21.7%	47%	-9.4%
10% ← realistic here	-29.2%	32%	-18.1%
15%	-36.0%	32%	-26.0%
20%	-42.3%	26%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -23% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day31.9

Drawdown99%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 11	$4	+$2	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 11	$2	+$1	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 11	$2	+$2	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 11	$4	+$6	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 11	$2	+$2	+118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 11	$4	+$6	+153%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Down	21¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Down	26¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$4	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$10	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$2	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records