Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf603…997e
sports · 574 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$176 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$162 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses316 / 245
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions13
Markets (closed)561 / 574
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day98.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 561 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$39
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 94¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+65%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 38¢ 99¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+159%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Baltimore Orioles 20¢ 68¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+242%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 29¢ 92¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+219%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 29¢ 80¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+174%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Under 39¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Over 47¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 58¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Over 67¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 66¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 32¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 55¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -46%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$3 -91%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$3 -69%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 +$4 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$2 +172%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 −$1 -40%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $4 +$6 +173%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 +$6 +510%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 −$1 -26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$147
crypto 13% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 5m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 3¢ $0 6m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 6m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $1 26m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 26m
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 66¢ $1 31m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 29¢ $1 31m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $1 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 59¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 13¢ $1 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 54¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 65¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 66¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 32¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 24¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 25¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 67¢ $1 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $1 2h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 20¢ $1 2h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 29¢ $1 2h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 32¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -2.8% -12.0% 54% 41% -4.9%
≤30d 561 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 46% -2.1%
≤90d 561 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 46% -2.1%
all 561 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 46% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover98.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 46% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -11.5%
15% -24.3% 28% -20.0%
20% -31.7% 22% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.34 · official $40.34 (match) · 1917 history records