Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf5fb…6eb5 world 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$472 (-1%) realized −$525 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 114L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$28
14 days−$1,716
30 days−$1,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2,217
politics 31% +$791
sports 11% +$15
other 7% +$1,568
crypto 3% −$414
economics 1% −$20
culture 0% −$157
finance 0% +$24
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.5% -4.5% 46% 46% -7.0%
≤30d 16 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 44% -58.3%
≤90d 38 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 37% -35.0%
all 229 -20.5% -28.0% 50% 33% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 33% -10.3%
10% -34.9% 26% -18.9%
15% -41.2% 20% -26.7%
20% -47.0% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$121 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$1,220
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)229 / 238
History coverage406d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 63¢ 68¢ $404 $437 +$33 (+8%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No 60¢ 72¢ $161 $192 +$31 (+19%)
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $170 $172 +$2 (+1%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $92 $172 +$80 (+87%)
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $88 $79 −$9 (-11%)
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $74 $72 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 51¢ 24¢ $143 $67 −$76 (-53%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 22 $143 −$53 -37%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $372 +$125 +34%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $210 −$146 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $10 +$32 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +136%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $253 +$86 +34%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $1,844 −$1,744 -95%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $221 +$6 +3%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 27 $16 +$34 +206%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 18 $138 +$32 +24%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 02 $302 −$300 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 02 $1,006 +$228 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $423 +$47 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $9 $0 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 15 $15 −$15 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Apr 13 $640 −$640 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 11 $123 −$83 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $162 +$438 +270%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Apr 07 $20 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $985 +$425 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $23 +$36 +157%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $300 +$7 +2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 25 $600 −$600 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 24 $58 −$5 -8%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie th Mar 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 18 $1,451 +$126 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $569 +$22 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 11 $68 +$3 +5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $102 +$26 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $6 +$3 +57%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $10 +$19 +186%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $277 −$5 -2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $31 −$1 -2%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 25¢ $89 35m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 36m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 99¢ $158 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 71¢ $6 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 71¢ $6 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 89¢ $59 2h
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian BUY Yes 69¢ $28 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 60¢ $28 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $4 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 55¢ $3 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 55¢ $16 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 55¢ $3 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 77¢ $291 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 48¢ $4 3h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 62¢ $26 4h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 57¢ $4 4h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 5h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 54¢ $16 5h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 55¢ $27 5h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 57¢ $12 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.76 · official $1,226.36 (match) · 798 history records