Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf5f9…81f3 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$284 (+4%) realized −$195 · open +$479
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$5,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$875
sports 7% −$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 67% -14.7%
≤30d 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 67% -14.7%
≤90d 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 67% -14.7%
all 3 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 67% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 67% -14.7%
10% -23.7% 67% -22.9%
15% -31.1% 33% -30.3%
20% -37.9% 33% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$492 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$5,383
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$479
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage15d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $2,000 $2,191 +$191 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1,004 $1,124 +$121 (+12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $500 $622 +$122 (+24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $554 +$54 (+11%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $300 $287 −$13 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,016 +$300 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 +$96 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 20 $492 −$492 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $513 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,316 1h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $305 30h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 22¢ $309 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $722 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $414 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,021 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $303 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,021 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,016 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $71 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $215 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $313 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $210 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $282 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,382.89 · official $5,383.02 (match) · 23 history records