Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf5f8…8fa1 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$222 (+13%) realized +$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% +7.4%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% +7.4%
≤90d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% +7.4%
all 22 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 45% +7.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 45% -2.9%
15% -26.8% 45% -12.2%
20% -34.0% 45% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$42 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$48 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$81 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$130 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $308 +$230 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $56 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records