Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5f8…131a sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$40 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$127
other 9% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -49.2% -54.0% 28% 22% -19.4%
≤30d 18 -49.2% -54.0% 28% 22% -19.4%
≤90d 18 -49.2% -54.0% 28% 22% -19.4%
all 18 -49.2% -54.0% 28% 22% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.0% 22% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -58.4% 22% -27.1%
15% -62.4% 22% -34.1%
20% -66.1% 11% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 33¢ 10¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $206 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $277 −$35 -13%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $72 −$10 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$40 +49%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $114 −$90 -79%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -19%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$71 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $376 +$39 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 42¢ $112 11m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $52 32m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 29¢ $21 41m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $82 57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 9¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 83¢ $109 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 50¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 38¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 42¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 27¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 36¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.63 · official $46.66 · 132 history records