Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5f6…adc1 world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$14
politics 23% $0
other 14% $0
sports 9% +$2
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 14% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 39% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 74 +1.4% -8.3% 32% 4% -10.0%
all 77 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -9.9%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage527d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +25%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $108 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $27 −$2 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $59 −$14 -24%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $74 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 −$1 -26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $82 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $20 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $82 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $21 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $227 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 2m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 60¢ $3 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $2 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $19 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $26 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $27 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records