Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf5f4…c9d9 world 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$12
other 21% −$6
politics 16% −$3
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 60 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 3% -9.0%
all 69 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -22.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -29.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -36.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage527d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 62¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 +$12 +68%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $24 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $88 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $45 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $6 $0 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $42 13m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $14 13m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $52 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $1 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $34 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $36 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $60 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $60 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $50 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records