Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

F5 0xf5ef…19ae other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$36 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%9W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$240

7 days+$143

14 days+$104

30 days+$104

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-35.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-23.1%	-30.4%	35%	35%	+10.0%
≤30d	27	-28.4%	-35.2%	33%	33%	+1.3%
≤90d	27	-28.4%	-35.2%	33%	33%	+1.3%
all	27	-28.4%	-35.2%	33%	33%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.2%	33%	+1.3%
10%	-41.4%	33%	-8.4%
15%	-47.1%	33%	-17.3%
20%	-52.3%	30%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -70% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$20 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized−$36

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses9 / 18

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 38

History coverage9d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	66¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$77	+152%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$51	+$84	+165%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	Jun 22	$16	−$16	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$149	+$68	+46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$37	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	+$30	+60%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$20	+$60	+291%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-100%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 16	$13	−$13	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+93%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists	Jun 14	$39	+$39	+101%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$24	−$24	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$56	−$56	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$135	1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O	BUY	4¢	$10	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	2h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	15¢	$16	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$149	10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	30¢	$71	37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	40¢	$25	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$8	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AN	BUY	2¢	$5	4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$51	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/	BUY	4¢	$25	6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	18¢	$26	6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$13	6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	54¢	$51	6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$20	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria	BUY	3¢	$6	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	7d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	42¢	$15	7d
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	25¢	$15	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.95 · official $61.95 · 63 history records