Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf5ee…a64c sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$879 (+9%) realized +$881 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 51L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$374
economics 2% −$188
other 1% +$8
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +26.4% +14.4% 88% 38% -7.4%
≤30d 23 +19.2% +7.9% 70% 35% -7.8%
≤90d 82 -12.6% -21.0% 38% 28% -7.7%
all 82 -12.6% -21.0% 38% 28% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 28% -7.7%
10% -28.5% 24% -16.5%
15% -35.4% 24% -24.6%
20% -41.8% 21% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$31 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$881
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage54d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 71¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,283 −$942 -73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,185 +$99 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $999 +$185 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $962 +$37 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $896 +$66 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $788 +$108 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $719 +$69 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $656 +$13 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $61 +$28 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $401 +$25 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $120 +$461 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $52 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $112 +$8 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $104 +$9 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 −$1 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 29 $10 $0 -3%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? May 25 $5 +$16 +320%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $36 +$19 +53%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 14 $300 −$294 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 12 $109 −$106 -97%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 11 $83 −$82 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$419 +409%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 05 $10 $0 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $55 +$49 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $15 +$23 +152%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $1 +$1 +82%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $1 +$1 +145%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $1 −$1 -88%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $2 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Team Aether (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 28 $1 $0 -4%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1 −$1 -90%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1 +$1 +91%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 24¢ $341 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 88¢ $1,283 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $1,283 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 92¢ $1,185 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $1,184 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 84¢ $999 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 87¢ $999 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 83¢ $962 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $9 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $1 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $64 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $100 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $50 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $24 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $50 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $222 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 98¢ $441 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $896 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $896 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $788 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $788 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 90¢ $719 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $148 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $101 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 99¢ $668 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 97¢ $656 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $88 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $61 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 94¢ $401 29h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 73¢ $101 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.96 · official $55.96 (match) · 287 history records